The U.S. Census Bureau confirmed Monday what political observers and data crunchers have long expected: Pennsylvania will soon lose one of its congressional seats, Spotlight PA reports.

When the 2022 midterm elections arrive, Pennsylvania will have 17 congressional districts, as opposed to the 18 currently represented evenly by Democratic and Republican lawmakers. The state will also lose one of its 20 Electoral College votes, further decreasing its clout during presidential contests.

Political observers expect a contentious debate between Wolf and Republican leadership, who are still at odds over the 2020 election and the administration’s pandemic response.

"The first question is: Is anyone planning on retiring?" said Democratic political strategist Mustafa Rashed, president and CEO of the Philadelphia-based firm Bellevue Strategies. "Because if someone’s retiring, usually that’s the easiest thing to do — to reapportion their seat."

THE CONTEXT: Pennsylvania's population didn't decline over the past decade, but it grew by just 2.4% — lagging far behind southern states like Florida and Texas. 

The state’s congressional map is drawn by the 253-member General Assembly and must be approved by the governor, in this case, Democrat Tom Wolf. If the two branches can't agree, the job goes to the state Supreme Court. 

That's an outcome already anticipated by Khalif Ali, executive director of the good-government group Common Cause Pennsylvania. That's why he's continuing to advocate for an independent commission to draw the maps.

"I think a lot of what we do is eating away at the integrity of democracy," he said, "and if we continue doing it, I don’t think we can expect people to participate."

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